Author Topic: TV Shows taking time to grow  (Read 2029 times)

Offline Chmarin

  • #CarpeDAYUM
  • Coadmin
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 18,271
  • Gender: Male
    • Trakt.tv page
TV Shows taking time to grow
« on: 04 October, 2008., 01:02:14 CEST »
The headlines after the initial Sept. 7 airing of HBO's vampire skein "True Blood" reflected the debut's apparently flat ratings: "Modest bite." "Rocky start."

While "True Blood" bowed to just 1.4 million total viewers for its initial run, the overall audience tally had grown to 5.4 million once several weeks' data measuring other viewing options had trickled in. HBO renewed the show for a second season.

As audiences increasingly watch original series through encore runs, DVRs and video-on-demand, the lesson is to not judge a show by its overnight numbers. Wait at least a week or two.

It's a logic proliferating among cable networks on the basic and premium side of the spectrum. Perceptions, they say, aren't in sync with reality.

"Don't look at a premiere number on a premium channel and think that it means much to our business," says David Baldwin, exec VP of program planning for HBO.

"Everybody wants to report the score of the ballgame, but the problem is that this particular ballgame isn't over for a few months," explains Baldwin, noting that viewing of an HBO series can take place on HBO on Demand weeks or months after the show first aired.

For networks, the need to communicate a clear, accurate message about their series' ratings extends well beyond mere vanity. Just as the public has become more aware of box office performance in recent years, audience perception of a show's Nielsen numbers now determines to a significant extent whether viewers will even sample it. Why buy into a series that will likely end soon?

Cries of "give it time" have long been a gripe among TV execs, but in the case of "True Blood" and other shows they may have some merit.

While two months seems like a long time to wait, holding off until at least Sept. 23 would have provided the press a truer assessment of "True Blood's" premiere perf, Baldwin says.

"At that point we had the (encore) plays, we had the live-plus-seven (DVR) numbers from Nielsen and we had two weeks of (HBO on Demand) numbers," Baldwin explains. "In recent context, 5.4 million is in line with an individual chapter of 'John Adams' this year, or the most successful 'Entourage' season ever when it followed 'The Sopranos.' It is in the league of larger-stature HBO programming."

Accounting for its total audience distribution, HBO researchers say "True Blood" receives only 23% of its viewership upon initial run, with 56% coming via encore presentations, 8% through DVR usage and 13% through HBO on Demand.

One thing is certain: Opening wide on cable TV isn't that important to some anymore, with viewers now equipped with a growing number of tools that let them determine their own schedule.

FX topper John Landgraf believes the standard cable industry operating procedure of publicizing overnight numbers featuring total viewer counts for a series' initial run should give way to reporting the metrics that advertisers care about. For starters, that means combining the viewership of the various encore presentations.

"What we actually sell to advertisers is a multirun cume," Landgraf says. "In my view, I could care less if somebody watches "The Shield" at 10 p.m. on Tuesday or an encore several days later, because what I'm selling is the cumulative rating of its runs. ... If you're a cable show and you're on four times a week, that's your weekly viewership."

With DVRs in nearly 30% of homes and advertisers now accounting for their usage, Landgraf says reported ratings should include seven days of DVR playback data after the initial airing of an episode. "Shows look really different once the plus-seven data comes in," he explains. "It can really make a dramatic difference in terms of the rating."

Research execs for competitors, including cable ratings leaders USA Network and Turner Networks, agree that waiting at least a week after an episode's initial run-date delivers a more accurate assessment of ratings performance. However, they feel much less strongly regarding the irrelevance of overnight numbers.

Overnights are "still a healthy enough benchmark to get a good read on how a show will do, even though you could be missing up to 40% of your audience based on what the show does seven days later," says Ted Linhart, VP of USA program research.

Jack Wakshlag, chief research officer for Turner Broadcasting, says that so-called "live plus seven" ratings -- measurement for the seven days after a show initial is shown -- are "the best benchmark for assessing overall performance, but what choice do you have? The show premieres on a Monday and people want to know how it did. You get a less-than-complete picture looking at it the next day, but you don't get a totally incomplete picture."

Indeed, overnight data may not capture the breadth and depth of "True Blood's" total audience, but it draws a pretty good picture of how the show is trending. After debuting to 1.4 million viewers, the Alan Ball-created series saw its overnight audience tally spike to 1.8 million for the subsequent initial runs of episodes two and three.

Conversely, TNT's new legal drama "Raising the Bar" enjoyed a big premiere Sept. 1, drawing 7.7 million viewers, but has seen its overnight numbers decline steadily since then, totalling just 2.5 million Sept. 22. These are clear ratings drops that wouldn't be offset by accounting for DVR viewing in subsequent days.

Further, as Wakshlag notes, more than half of the DVR bump a show might receive after its initial airing can come in that first day, meaning this viewership will be accounted for in the overnight rating anyway. "Most shows get a big chunk of their DVR boost on the same day they run," he says.



Ovo se uglavnom odnosi na kabelske serije... Ja sam bio u šoku kad sam vidio gledanost nakon prve epizode True Blooda... Meni je pilot bio predobar i već sam se pomirio sa sudbinom, da će serija trajat 13 epizoda, i onda, out of nowhere, HBO naručio drugu sezonu :D

To samo govori da je u principu bolje (iz perspektive autora serije) imat sseriju na kabelskoj mreži, jer su šanse za opstanak veće... Znao sam da standardi na tim kanalima nisu tako visoki, ali da se ukupna gledanost mjeri iz cjelotjednih prikazivanja - to mi je novost :top: :D

Problem je sa ovih 5 velikih mreža što nemaju strpljenja, ali ni dobrih strategija... Savršen primjer - Pushing Daisies - čitao sam jučer kako ljudi uopće nisu šokirani gledanošću premijere jer su rijetko kad vidjeli promo klipove na ABCu... Isto tako, od repriza ni r... A ABC je prije godinu dana praktički cijelu svoju jesenku sezonu vrtio oko PD, tj. to im je bila jedna od glavnih serija (zajedno sa Private Practice) oko koje su se fokusirali i koju su strašno promovirali... :ne zna:
 

Offline Franko

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 7,968
  • Gender: Male
Re: TV Shows taking time to grow
« Reply #1 on: 04 October, 2008., 01:17:08 CEST »
The sample size is pretty small, but early returns on the new TV season suggest it's not an especially good time to be a new show, and an even worse one to be a second-year show -- particularly one whose first season was cut short by the writers strike.

Chuck, Pushing Daisies, Private Practice and other second-year shows that had longer-than-usual layoffs because of the strike have suffered some pretty steep dropoffs in their audience. Again, we're only talking about one or two episodes in most cases, and the shows will gain some when later DVR viewing is taken into account (a little over a quarter of homes have DVRs now). But shows also don't usually make big ratings gains once a season starts, so the outlook isn't exactly rosy.

Consider some of these figures:

    * Last season NBC's Chuck averaged about 8.7 million viewers per week, and Life drew 8.1 million. Both shows premiered Monday to fewer than 7 million viewers.
    * ABC's Pushing Daisies and Private Practice premiered Wednesday to audiences that were 3.1 million and 2.7 million viewers below their averages last fall. Dirty Sexy Money fared a little better, but its audience of 7.1 million was still down by 1 million compared to last year's average.
    * Two more series that had their midseason runs truncated because of the strike -- FOX's Terminator: The Sarah Connor Chronicles and NBC's Lipstick Jungle -- have also declined. Even if you remove the 18 million-plus opening for Sarah Connor following an NFL playoff game in January, the show has still lost more than 2 million viewers. Lipstick Jungle, which was a surprise renewal in the spring, is down about 1.3 million viewers.

The common thread among all those shows is that none of them had aired an original episode in at least six months. The networks for the most part opted to rest their first-year shows after the strike, and no show that more than half a year off -- even an established one like Heroes, which has lost about 3 million viewers so far -- has come close to matching its ratings from last season.

Johnnygalecki_bigbangtheory_240In contrast, established shows that were brought back post-strike -- the Grey's Anatomys and NCISes of the world -- have done OK, drawing audiences on par with or slightly below their 2007-08 averages. Two of the few second-year shows that did air new episodes in the spring, CBS' The Big Bang Theory and The CW's Gossip Girl, have been fairly healthy so far this fall.

The bitter irony for the second-year shows is that in at least a couple of cases, the long hiatus has actually helped them creatively. The first three episodes of Chuck that NBC sent to critics are as good, if not better, than any the series aired last fall. Pushing Daisies also has a strong beginning creatively, and Private Practice seems to have worked out some of the adolescent silliness that plagued it last year.

News for the newcomers isn't a whole lot better. Tuesday-night competitors The Mentalist and Fringe are the only shows that can be labeled "hits" so far; the CBS crime drama is by far the most-watched new show at 15 million-plus viewers, while the FOX show leads all newbies in the adults 18-49 demographic (4.1, six-tenths of a point ahead of The Mentalist). The CW's 90210 has been a CW-sized success, averaging about 3.7 million viewers so far and pulling in the young female viewers the network wants.

A few high-profile new series -- Life on Mars, Eleventh Hour and My Own Worst Enemy -- have yet to premiere and could still make a bit of a splash in the coming weeks. But if you're looking for a new (or newish) smash this season, you're going to have a hard time finding one.




Offline punkt

  • Global Moderator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 748
  • Gender: Male
Re: TV Shows taking time to grow
« Reply #2 on: 05 October, 2008., 20:27:11 CEST »
wooohoo tru blood dobio 2 sezonu a prva tek pocela :cerek:
Molim vas da koristite Spojler tagove [*spoiler]Spojlani sadrzaj[/spoiler] (Bez *)
[url=http://primetime-hr.c

Offline Mikey

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 6,164
  • Gender: Male
Re: TV Shows taking time to grow
« Reply #3 on: 10 October, 2008., 14:14:01 CEST »
Problem je sa ovih 5 velikih mreža što nemaju strpljenja, ali ni dobrih strategija... Savršen primjer - Pushing Daisies - čitao sam jučer kako ljudi uopće nisu šokirani gledanošću premijere jer su rijetko kad vidjeli promo klipove na ABCu... Isto tako, od repriza ni r... A ABC je prije godinu dana praktički cijelu svoju jesenku sezonu vrtio oko PD, tj. to im je bila jedna od glavnih serija (zajedno sa Private Practice) oko koje su se fokusirali i koju su strašno promovirali... :ne zna:

PD nije oglašavana? Pa ja ne živim u Americi, a vidio sam oglase... čak su mi na Yahoo email stavili mogućnost PD-a kao pozadine s najavom za novu sezonu! (ja se ponadao da su to počeli raditi za serije, al kad ono SAMO ZA PD). Mislim da je PD oglašava dovoljno.

S ovim da su Big 5 nedovoljno strpljivi se donekle slažem. Ali opet imaš serije koje dobivaju nove sezone, bez nekog razloga... tako da, nekad su strpljivi, nekad nisu... ali gledanost nije jedini faktor, pa onda valjda i to utječe na odluku da li će neka serija ostati...
MY FAVORITES
The Challenge: Laurel, Cara Maria, Cohutta, Aneesa

Offline neo

  • Global Moderator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 9,546
  • Gender: Male
  • Knope we can!
Re: TV Shows taking time to grow
« Reply #4 on: 10 October, 2008., 14:20:26 CEST »
Ja mislim da dosta veliki (da ne kazem i presudni) uticaj ima i produkcija serije tj koliko sve to kosta. PD je skupa serija i nazalost ukoliko ne zadovoljava gledanost koja bi isplacivala tu produkciju vjerovatnije je da ce skinuti nju nego neko jeftiniju produkciju, kao sto je friday night lights. mislim da je FNL imala ovako skupu produkciju kao sto je ima PD, mi toj seriji ne bi gledali ni drugu a kamoli trecu sezonu.

My last day, I wear a metal uniform go around city killing criminals like robocop. Pow pow pow pow pow pow.

Offline Mikey

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 6,164
  • Gender: Male
Re: TV Shows taking time to grow
« Reply #5 on: 10 October, 2008., 14:27:15 CEST »
Ja mislim da dosta veliki (da ne kazem i presudni) uticaj ima i produkcija serije tj koliko sve to kosta. PD je skupa serija i nazalost ukoliko ne zadovoljava gledanost koja bi isplacivala tu produkciju vjerovatnije je da ce skinuti nju nego neko jeftiniju produkciju, kao sto je friday night lights. mislim da je FNL imala ovako skupu produkciju kao sto je ima PD, mi toj seriji ne bi gledali ni drugu a kamoli trecu sezonu.

Yup. Troškovi produkcije sigurno imaju veliki utjecaj.
MY FAVORITES
The Challenge: Laurel, Cara Maria, Cohutta, Aneesa